Tag Archives: Uncertainty

We are explanation-seeking animals who tend to think that everything has an identifiable cause …

-Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan …we are explanation-seeking animals who tend to think that everything has an identifiable cause and grab the most apparent one as the explanation. Yet there may not be a visible because; to the contrary, frequently there is nothing, not even a spectrum of possible explanations. But silent evidence masks this …

I want room to change my mind because changing your mind is good. Changing your mind means you are learning, you are making progress, it means you are taking in new information. So we need to give ourselves the ability to change our mind

— Guy Spier I want room to change my mind because changing your mind is good. Changing your mind means you are learning, you are making progress, it means you are taking in new information. So we need to give ourselves the ability to change our mind.”

A puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events. Overconfidence is fed by the illusory certainty of hindsight

– Thinking, Fast and Slow P. 13 … a puzzling limitation of our mind: our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in. We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the …