What I Think I Know
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What I Think I Know

“Just trying to do the hardest thing of all – to understand”

No one knows anything about anything…

No one knows anything about anything…

October 25, 2019 Nate

Once you understand that, the world makes much more sense.
The world is a complex place, and we’ve figured out very little of it… Doctors have great expertise, but the unknowns of how our body works far outweigh the knowns. The best policy advisers around the world can only offer sincere, reasoned suggestions… but no one knows what will happen in, say, the Middle East or with global trade or global climate change.
We work with the best educated guesses we can… That’s as good as it gets.

— David Eifrig

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People have a recency bias (that overweights fresh events), an anchoring bias (that overweights past events) and a loss aversion bias (that makes people fear loss more than they desire gain). These biases won’t go away. They’re the result of millions of years of evolution. But once you identify them, you can overcome them personally and factor them into forecasts of market behavior.
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Civilization is not about more capital accumulation per se; rather, it is about what capital accumulation allows humans to achieve…
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Altruism A Philosophy of Life Awareness Biology Brain & Mind Caring Too Much About What Others Think Charlie Munger Death Democracy Desire Economics Emotions Epictetus Fear Funny History Human Behavior Human Folly Immigration Individuality Investing Irrationality Knowledge Language Life Love Machine Learning Marcus Aurelius Marriage Money Pain & Suffering Perspective Politics Prince Seneca Social Influence Standard of Living Stoics Success Thinking Time Truth Uncertainty War Work
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